From there, the scientists used a machine learning model to link those observed genome shifts with traits. They found that those DNA changes strongly impacted body size and parental care. Across the taxa the researchers examined, birds became smaller after the mass-extinction-linked genetic shifts, and hatchlings became less mature at emergence and more reliant on parental care. Clutch size and granivory, or seed-eating, were also significantly linked with the observed DNA changes.
Life immediately following a massive asteroid impact is hard. One day, “you’re used to nice, sunny Cretaceous days with beautiful forest and plentiful food, and then all of a sudden you’re in this blasted hellscape,” says Daniel Ksepka, a paleontologist and curator at the Bruce Museum in Connecticut. Ksepka was uninvolved in the new research but has previously studied bird diversification. “It makes a lot of sense” that the study would identify such trait changes as linked with the extinction event; he tells Popular Science that size and parental care were likely important traits to manage a suddenly, much harsher reality. Smaller birds require less food and fuel and can survive on less. Previous research has indicated that less mature hatchlings counterintuitively develop and grow faster, which may have been key to boosting reproductive success over generations.
Ksepka says an increase in seed-eating is a particularly interesting find. At the end of the Cretaceous, many plants died or were unable to grow as ash blocked out sunlight. But seeds would have remained as a potential food source for at least a few years. The rise of granivores in the genetic data supports existing theories that beaked birds survived and diversified because of their ability to take advantage of a resource that others couldn’t.
It’s long been understood that mass extinctions create opportunities for new organisms to evolve and take over unfilled ecological niches. A world without an asteroid impact 66 million years ago would likely have far fewer mammals, for instance. But what’s often less discussed is how the remnants of extinction opportunity can become ingrained and fundamentally dictate what’s to follow for millions and millions more years. “The evolutionary trajectories of the major bird groups were encoded and remained fixed since that point in time,” says Berv–his study demonstrates that.
Yet the new research doesn’t resolve some questions. Because it relied on partial–not complete–genomes, Berv notes the study doesn’t identify every major genetic change that likely occurred as a result of the Chicxulub impactor. He’d like to conduct a similar analysis at the full genome level, but he doesn’t currently have access to the computing power he’d need to do so.
And there is a margin of error built into genetic modeling studies. The fossil record is incomplete, and analyzing contemporary genetic data through the lens of what happened 66 million years ago comes with lots of uncertainty, as exemplified by paradigm-shifting recent discoveries.
“These models and attempts to reconstruct things. They’re not God’s truth,” says Longrich.
Though he finds the study a compelling initial attempt at using this new method and presenting a hypothesis for how avian evolution may have occurred at the K-Pg boundary, he’s not fully convinced it’s the final word. Science is an ongoing, fluid process. And one study doesn’t cement a hypothesis as fact, notes Longrich. “I would not bet my life that this phylogeny is correct. But I would bet you a beer it is–it’s like that level of confidence,” he says. “There are fossils in the Cretaceous that we are still trying to classify. But it’s a really interesting first step.”
As more steps follow, we’ll get an even deeper view into the faraway past and how it reverberates in the present. One day, it may help us decode what’s to come. “Understanding how the evolution of life has been linked to major changes in Earth’s history is a fundamental question in biology,” says Berv. Some research indicates that a new, human-caused mass extinction is already underway, and bird evolution could offer us a roadmap to prepare for the aftermath. “If we want to know how life will respond to current and future events–something massive like climate change–the only resource we have to rely on is history.”